Monday, April 7, 2008

Checking on my regular season predictions

Before the season started I put into place my predictions on how the NHL regular season would turn out. At this point I like to see how well (or poorly) I did, and to try and make some better predictions for the post season. As tempted as I am to go back and edit my original predictions at this point, I'll let it stand, and do a real anlaysis. (My pre-season predictions)

Things were pretty bad in the Northeast. I still thought that Buffalo was going to win the whole thing. I discounted Montreal completely, and also had Boston missing the playoffs (although the differences between just out and just in are not really that big). Still I had Toronto actually making the post season, and wasn't alone in assuming that Ottawa would be just barely in.

Did much better in the Atlantic division, correctly picking the three playoff teams, and ignoring the hype at the time that said the Flyers would be winning everything. In the southeast I also did pretty well, picking the top two correctly (if in the wrong order), and don't feel it was that bad of an assumption that at least two teams from each division would make it. Especially because the Hurricanes did end the season in ninth.

Out west I did much better. I picked the two playoff teams in the Central and picked Detroit to win it (not too daring of a guess). Although I didn't expect Kane and Toews to contribute as much as they did so early, and had them in last.

Out in the Pacific division I nailed the expectations, and got the top three playoff teams correct, and even in the right order. San Jose had more or less been the preseason favorite, and while those expectations died down over the season, based on the past month, I see no reason now why it couldn't happen. I did thing that Phoenix was going to bomb out much worsen then they did, but they did manage to miss the playoffs.

In the Northwest my predictions were not as accurate either, as I had put too much stock into Luongo, and really underestimated the Wild once again. Calgary and Edmonton though, were pretty safe bets.

In an attempt to redeem myself I'm picking Kansas to win tonight. Not that I'm actually going to watch the game, but I've got at least a 50% chance of getting it right.

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